Recent 6 months news in Economy

According to a report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the GDP growth forecast of India for FY27 is revised to 7% from the earlier estimate of 6.6% in July.

According to the “National Accounts Statistics (NAS) - 2026” publication released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), FY23 has been adopted as the base year for national account estimates.

The publication consists of 60 statements derived from the updated Final estimates for FY23 and FY24, and the First Revised Estimate for FY25. The revised estimates incorporate new series for the Producer Price Index (PPI), Index of Industrial Production (IIP), and Banking Services Price Index (BkSPI), all of which use the 2022-23 base year.

According to the Quarterly Estimates of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the Real GDP of India grew by 7.8% in Q1 FY27 (April-June 2026), compared to 6.9% in Q1 FY26.

This is the first release to use the revised base year of 2022-23 for the National Accounts Statistics (NAS). The GDP at Constant Prices (2022-23) for Q1 FY27 is estimated at ₹81.36 lakh crore, while it stood at ₹75.46 lakh crore in Q1 FY26. The GDP at Current Prices is estimated at ₹88.27 lakh crore (against ₹80 lakh crore in Q1 FY26), reflecting a growth rate of 10.3%.

According to a report by the Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCRA), the Foreign Currency and Local Currency Long-term Issuer Ratings of India were upgraded to “A-” from “BBB+” with a stable outlook. This upgrade comes after a gap of 35 years.

JCRA also upgraded the country ceiling for India to “A”. The report projected the fiscal deficit of the Central Government to decrease from 4.7% in FY25 to 4.4% in FY26.

The National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) has launched “RAINCHNNAI”, a rainfall-based weather derivatives contract in Chennai to help market participants hedge risks associated with the Northeast (NE) monsoon.

The contract uses a cash-settled futures model to track rainfall deviations in Chennai between September and December. It is to be noted that the NE monsoon, also known as the retreating monsoon, contributes nearly 70% of the annual rainfall in Chennai.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) has released the trial Index of Services Production (ISP) of India, which provides a monthly measure of short-term activity in the formal services sector for the first time.

The ISP covers 19 sub-sectors and uses 2024-25 as the base year for its calculations. It is to be noted that Real Estate has emerged as the fastest-growing services sub-sector, recording a Year-on-Year growth of 24.7%.

The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology has notified the “Mobile Phone Manufacturing Scheme” (MPMS) with a total financial outlay of ₹62,500 crore to enhance global competitiveness, deepen Domestic Value Addition (DVA), and strengthen manufacturing capabilities within the mobile phone production sector.

The tenure of the MPMS is 5 years, spanning from FY27 to FY31. The scheme comprises two Target Segments (TS). TS1 focuses on providing incentives ranging from 2.25% to 5% for mobile phone manufacturing. TS2 is designed to support Indian mobile phone brands with a 5% incentive, plus an additional 3% incentive for Indian design and Research & Development (R&D).

The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), functioning under the Ministry of Commerce and Industry (MoCI), has relaxed regulations for rupee-based export transactions to provide Indian exporters with greater flexibility.

Rupee-denominated payments for exports to any country, except Nepal and Bhutan, will qualify for benefits under the Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) and count toward the fulfillment of export obligations. The DGFT also specified that exports financed through the Export-Import Bank of India (EXIM Bank) or Government of India (GoI) lines of credit may be invoiced in INR.

According to a report by ICRA Ltd, the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of India for Q1 FY27 is estimated at 7%, marking a four-quarter low compared to the 7.8% growth in Q4 FY26.

The agency maintained the real GDP growth forecast for the full FY27 at 6.7%, while the nominal GDP growth is expected to reach 13%.

According to the “Monthly Bulletin of the Periodic Labour Force Survey” (PLFS) for July 2026 released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), the unemployment rate (UR) of India declined to 5.1% in July 2026 from 5.5% recorded in June 2026.

According to data by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry (MoCI), the total exports of India (merchandise and services) grew by 13.31% year-on-year (y-o-y) to $80.14 billion in July 2026. The total imports of the nation increased by 15.83% to $95.16 billion during the same period.

The total trade deficit for July 2026 was recorded at $15.03 billion, which is an increase from the $11.43 billion deficit registered in July 2025.

According to the “Ecowrap” report released by the Economic Research Department (ERD) of the State Bank of India (SBI), the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of India is projected to rebound to 8% in the first quarter (Q1: April to June) of the FY27.

According to a report by India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra), the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast of India for FY27 is upgraded to 6.8%, from the 6.7% estimated in May 2026.

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation is projected at 8.5% in FY27 from 0.4% in FY26. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is estimated to average 4.9% in FY27, with retail inflation expected to peak at 5.9% in Q3FY27 before moderating to 5% in Q4FY27.

The Government e-Marketplace (GeM) has achieved a cumulative Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ₹20 trillion. The platform was launched in 2016.

Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs) accounted for 45.6% of the total procurement value on the portal, which has facilitated over 3.78 crore orders.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a $1 billion loan to the Government of India (GoI) to support the urban reform agenda of India. This programme is designed to support the implementation of the Urban Challenge Fund (UCF).

Additionally, the ADB has sanctioned $3 million in technical assistance to the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA) for the effective implementation of the programme.

According to the report titled "Prelude to Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting: August 3-5, 2026 Peace in a piecemeal manner" released by the Economic Research Department of the SBI, India's GDP growth for Q1 FY27 is projected at 7%.

The report stated that inflation stood at 3.9% during Q1 FY27. It further projects that the Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) will remain above 5% during the next two quarters of FY27, with an overall inflation projection of 5% for the full financial year.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) has announced plans to adopt the Producer Price Index (PPI) as a deflator for quarterly and annual GDP estimates, replacing the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) where applicable.

It is to be noted that in June 2026, WPI inflation rose to 9.87% from 9.68% in May 2026, while output PPI inflation increased to 9.57% from 9.38% during the same period.

The government has designated cotton as "White Gold" due to its pivotal role in supporting the livelihoods of farmers and stakeholders across the textile value chain.

India ranks 1st globally in cotton cultivation area, covering 114.84 lakh hectares (ha) or 38% of the world's total cotton area, and holds the 2nd position in both cotton production and consumption.

According to the Ministry of Textiles (MoT), India's cotton production is provisionally projected at 290.91 lakh bales or 4.95 MT for the 2025-26 period. India's total cotton exports were valued at $11.49 billion in FY25. It is to be noted that the USA is the largest destination for India's cotton fabrics and made-up exports, accounting for 26.35% of the total shipments.

According to a report by ICRA Ltd, India's real GDP growth for the first quarter (Q1) of FY27 is projected at 6.4-6.6%.

The Government of India has revised the Special Additional Excise Duty (SAED) on the export of diesel, Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF), and petrol, effective from 16 July 2026.

The SAED on diesel exports has been increased to ₹15.5 per litre from ₹8.5 per litre, and on ATF exports to ₹14.5 per litre from ₹7.5 per litre. Meanwhile, the export duty on petrol has been reduced to ₹2.5 per litre from ₹4 per litre.